SYNOPSIS

Last Week… After a tragic opening to 2016, the markets final had an up week. with the exception of the S&P/TSX Venture Index. All trend values for the major indexes that we track remained negative, however.

ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP)… The PTP is still 86% in cash, but we have a few positions on the short side that we discuss in more detail in the main body of the newsletter. Our portfolio is to the upside again, if only by a small amount.

PTA Perspective… Coping with Impatience
It’s difficult being an investor sitting on a stack of cash, instead of actively trading to “make as much money as we can, as fast as we can”. Nonetheless there are times when sitting on cash is the best possible strategy. We explain why this week, and offer some tips on what you can be doing while waiting for a sustainable trend to emerge (up or down).
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Investor Confidence… The Smart Money Shrugs Off the January Meltdown
The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index results for January are now available, and the results are surprisingly not that different from those reported for December. Apparently, the January downdraft hasn’t had any impact on institutional investors (yet). The Global ICI decreased to 108.8, down just 1.7 points from December’s revised reading of 110.5. The decline in sentiment was driven by a decrease in the North American ICI from 110.5 to 108.8 along with the Asian ICI falling 1.5 points to 102.9, and the European ICI falling 0.1 points to 103.4. Still, the numbers show that stocks are preferred over safer bonds by the “smart money”.

Seasonality… We begin to cover what’s in store for February in terms of calendar effects. February doesn’t usually offer great returns of stocks, but then January was supposed to have been great! Energy and Materials are supposed to perform well in February. That’s something we desperately need right now.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… If the previous week seemed like the worst week in your investment career, then last week would have offered no relief. The range of losses among major averages for the week were -2.2% to -7.2%. All of the major indexes we track are now trending lower at a pace of 1% to 2% per week. Extrapolate that over 52 weeks and be very afraid, if you still have a large portfolio of stocks. Monday is a US holiday, so we’ll have to wait until Tuesday morning to see whether investors press the panic button or start buying again.

ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP)… We’re certainly not immune to this devastation with our PTP bundle, as you can see, but we’re 90% in cash (and have been close to that for quite some time now), and have just three positions to worry about.

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Is a global recession imminent given the way stocks have been declining worldwide? Perhaps, but that’s not an easy call to make. We show you some 2015 data for markets worldwide, and lay out the outlook right now for the same countries. We also spend some more time discussing China, and the US media’s misleading representation of China’s impact on US stock prices. In fact we even outline (too late, unfortunately) how we could have made a killing investing solely in Chinese stocks last year. It’s a thought experiment that could well be useful in the future when considering other overseas investment opportunities.

Investor Confidence & Seasonality… The Investor Confidence Index data for January won’t be out for another week or so, but the Investor Confidence data for December is still available in the full edition of the newsletter. We’ve also added a bit of new material on seasonality extracted from the latest edition of the monthly Thackeray Market Letter.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… All of our indexes were down last week… big time! One week losses ranged from -2.1% (S&P/TSX Venture Index) to -7.3% (Nasdaq)! All our major indexes are trending lower… most at -1.0% per week or more. The broader indicators that we track are even worse off.

ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP)… Naturally, the annualized growth rates that we use to compare the ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP) with the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index took a major hit as well. We rarely see the PTP AGR on the negative side, but as usual we’re heavily into cash well before major slumps appear. We have just three positions left and are sitting at nearly 90% cash.

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This week we continue exploring a couple of our common themes: (1) putting everything in perspective, and (2) seeking out charts and data that can be invaluable as reference documents for those “relative to what?” questions. We talk about average expected returns from investing in stocks, what the last 10 bear/bull market cycles have looked like, and we tear down a piece of research that initially looked quite interesting. Charts can also deceive!

Investor Confidence & Seasonality… No additions or updates this week. Seasonality data for January and Investor Confidence data for December remain in their typical places in the full newsletter.

Featured videos… We have two video interviews for you this week. Since the US media are ruthlessly blaming China for everything that’’s going wrong with US stocks right now, we bring you comments from Marc Faber and Jim Rogers. Both make it quite clear that the US markets are tanking without China’s help.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… The most battered index of 2015, the S&P/TSX Venture Index, was the only one with a gain (of 1.7%) over the past week. The S&P/TSX Composite Index was dead neutral, and the others we track weekly lost ground (all close to -1.0%). That left all trend values near zero. The markets ended the year neutered!

ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP)… The 7% reading this week is way down from 65% last week, although the benchmark index AGRs showed major declines too. We cautioned you that the PTP was highly influenced by a highly leverage inverse ETN based on the price of natural gas. Natural gas rallied sharply over the past week, removing almost all of your short-term profits. We closed that position with just a modest gain.

PTA Research… 2015 Year End Review & Outlook for 2016
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Investor Confidence… The latest SSICI numbers for December 2015 are still available. The Global ICI rose to 108.3, up 1.0 point from November’s revised reading of 107.3. The improvement in sentiment was driven by an increase in the European ICI from 96.2 to 103.7 along with the Asian ICI rising 4.6 points to 105.1. By contrast, the North American ICI decreased by 5.9 points to 106.6. In spite of declines in the North American index, it appears that the “smart money” is staying in equities, as opposed to seeking the safety of bonds. 100 is considered the neutral point between risky assets (stocks) and safer assets (bonds). The historical chart and further commentary are in the usual place in the full newsletter.

Seasonality… We’ve added some additional sector data on typical performance for January. We’re now using Thackeray’s 2016 Investor Guide for the latest numbers on calendar effects. You can order your own copy via our convenient Amazon-based online bookstore at the web site.