SYNOPSIS

Last Week… The major indexes that we track all had gains of 2-3% last week, bringing most trend values to the positive side, from recent downtrends. Only S&P/TSX Venture Index has a slightly negative trend value.

ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP)… The 65% reading this week is down from 113% last week, even as the benchmark index AGRs move to the plus side. The PTP right now is highly influenced by a highly leverage inverse ETN. That just happened to be a drag on the PTP last week, as the price of the underlying commodity changed direction.

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Investor Confidence… The latest SSICI numbers for December 2015 are now available. The Global ICI rose to 108.3, up 1.0 point from November’s revised reading of 107.3. The improvement in sentiment was driven by an increase in the European ICI from 96.2 to 103.7 along with the Asian ICI rising 4.6 points to 105.1. By contrast, the North American ICI decreased by 5.9 points to 106.6. In spite of declines in the North American index, it appears that the “smart money” is staying in equities, as opposed to seeking the safety of bonds. 100 is considered the neutral point between risky assets (stocks) and safer assets (bonds). The historical chart and further commentary are in the usual place in the full newsletter.

Seasonality… We’ve added some initial data on typical market index performance for January. Historically, January is a fairly positive month for stocks.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… The S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index both had gains last week (about 2% and 1% respectively), but the rest of the indexes we track headed lower, continuing the sharp decline from a week before. All index trend values are negative.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our recently re-invented ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP) is holding up well given the adverse circumstances. The 113% reading this week is up from 84% last week, but you can also see how the major indexes are still in the minus column trend-wise.

Bingo! After eight weeks of buying and selling we’ve re-established above average PTP results against this benchmark… our four-year history.
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So we’ll be dropping this second chart from the Synopsis for now. It may be worth bringing it make from time to time, or adding it to the Data & Charts Workbooks. Send us your opinion on either of those possibilities.

PTA Perspective… Strategic Planning for 2016: Perspective, Simplicity & Process
This week we pull together the beginnings of an overall strategic plan for 2016 and beyond. It’s based on various tips and tricks we’ve discussed before, but we’re trying to consolidate some of that. We talk about three underlying principles that are essential: Perspective, Simplicity and Process. Each is based on psychological research and evidence. We tie-in knowledge of our inherent biases that contaminate our investment decision making with some tactics for removing those barriers to profitability.

Investor Confidence & Seasonality… The latest ICI numbers won’t be available until December 29; but on the seasonality front, we expand of the fact that the so-called Santa Claus Rally doesn’t normally come before Christmas, contrary to what the media have been telling us in recent weeks. It happens between Xmas and New Years, and spills over into early January. It comes down to tax-loss selling driving prices lower, before new buying pressure emerges. Details to follow in the Seasonality section.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… Almost everything is wrong right now in terms of the seasonal perspective on stock investing. December is normally a great month for equities. All the major indexes fell 3% to over 4% last week, dragging all trend values to the negative side.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our recently re-invented ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP) is holding up well given the adverse circumstances. The 84% reading this week is down from 95% last week, but you can see how the major indexes are tanking.

Meanwhile, we’re still sharing our 4 year average profile for both PTP and our benchmarks.

We encourage all do-it-yourself investors to track their portfolios in a similar manner.
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PTA Perspective… US vs Canadian Stocks: The Choice is Clear!
We’ve certainly mentioned from time to time that US equities are a better bet than Canadian securities in the past few years. This is due to the issue that Canada’s economy is not a scaled-down version of what’s happening in the US. This week we expand on this with some more charts and commentary. We don’t have much motivation to invest in stocks at all right now (especially after last week), but we’ll leave you with some thoughts on how and when to jump back in. When you do so, it should probably be on the US side of the border.

In the News this Week… Closet Indexers
We’ve decided to occasionally feature a prominent news item from the previous week, if we feel it deserves consideration and comment. This week we bring your attention to another way the mutual fund industry is gouging their customers… closet indexing. This despicable practice is apparently legal, and the Canadian mutual fund industry is apparently the biggest offender worldwide. If you still have any portion of your investment capital in mutual funds, you’ll want to read this.

Investor Confidence & Seasonality… Nothing new to report this week. We’ll set you up for potential calendar effects in January next week; and the latest ICI numbers won’t be available until December 29.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… The S&P/TSX Venture Index and S&P/TSX Small Cap Indexes remain at the bottom of our major index chart on a trend basis. The S&P/TSX Composite Index was down too, and continues downward on a trend basis as well. That leaves just the US indexes positive both for last week and on a trend basis.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our newly re-invented ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP), is now celebrating its six week anniversary. The 95% reading this week is up from 77% last week.
Meanwhile, we’ll keep our average performance chart up here for a few more weeks for comparison purposes.

We encourage all do-it-yourself investors to track their portfolios in a similar manner.

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PTA Perspective… Commodity ETPs: Natural Gas

This week’s Perspective topic is on commodity ETPs. Unlike the majority of exchange traded products (ETPs), commodity ETNs and related instruments are not based on the performance of a basket of stocks. They instead try to track actual spot commodity prices — of barrels of oil, bushels of wheat, pounds of coffee, etc. In some cases such as gold and precious metals, the fund actually holds the raw commodity in storage… enough to represent the number of outstanding ETP shares. For other commodities, the funds hold futures contracts for the commodities instead. It’s more convenient than storage, but the contracts are still considered representative of the ETP shares outstanding. We focus on that futures-based category today, using natural gas as an example. Regardless of that, you’ll find that the same principles and practices apply to other commodity ETPs as well.

Investor Confidence & Seasonality… Nothing new to report this week.

SYNOPSIS

Last Week… Results among the major indexes were mixed last week. One-week price moves were about 1% or less in most cases. That meant almost zero impact on the trend values, which are still much higher among the US indexes, than the Canadian indexes we report on.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our newly re-invented ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP), is now celebrating its four week anniversary. The 84% reading this week is a little lower than the 84% we reported last week, but we’re well up from the -45% we were reluctant to show you two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, we’ll keep our average performance chart up here for a few more weeks for comparison purposes.

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PTA Perspective… Chart Appreciation Week!

This week we talk about the importance of recognizing the value of really well prepared financial charts that include more data than you would guess at first glance. These are the kinds of charts that you should save so that you can go back to them as often as required. New investors in stocks, in particular, should have a set of these available as references. In our discussion this week we’ve found two major recent research reports that put the old “you can expect 10% per year by investing in equities” claim in perspective. The results of each project are (separately) condensed into a single chart… amazing! You’ll learn how market cycles distort the 10% rule, and why your investment horizon matters too.
Seasonality… We re-visit the US Thanksgiving calendar effect one last time with a report on the actual results. Those who made un-leveraged investments over the two days that should have been profitable last Wednesday and Friday, might have made a small profit after trading costs, but the 2015 results were well below historic averages. We opted to go with a tried-and-true leveraged investment… the double-or-nothing bet, set up with an online service that offers binary options (i.e. double-or-nothing bets). We only needed to choose direction, not %-change, so it was very easy… S&P 500 UP between Tuesday close and Friday close (at 1pm), and S&P 500 DOWN for the lesser known Monday effect. The first play returned 75.4%, the second one 88.5%. It feels like shooting fish in a barrel, when the odds are 70-80% in our favour. Too bad that Thanksgiving only comes once a year! With that behind us, the focus now is on December. We start to lay out what you can expect in terms of the most profitable niches. We’ve also found a timely video on this topic.
State Street Investor Confidence Index… The Global ICI for November (just released last week) decreased to 106.8, down 7.2 points from October’s revised reading of 114. The decline in sentiment was driven by a decrease in the North American ICI from 124.8 to 112.9 along with the Asian ICI falling 9.3 points to 100.7. By contrast, the European ICI rose by 6.3 points to 96.5. Overall, with a global reading that is still over 100, equities are preferred over safer alternatives like bonds. It’ll be interesting to see if there’s follow-through on the improving situation in Europe… because we’re not hearing anything about that in the media!