SYNOPSIS
After the worst week of 2015, it’s not surprising that we had a fairly significant rebound to the upside last week. Nonetheless, the trend values of all major indexes remain negative. The surge upward last week was just half of what the losses were the previous week, no matter which index you pick. The worst may not be over.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +161%. That’s about the same as the +162% the previous week. meanwhile the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index remain decidedly negative.

PTA Commentary… Keep Calm & Hang onto Your Shorts!

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Smart Money… The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index results for August were released last week. The Global ICI decreased to 108.7, down 4.5 points from July’s revised reading of 113.2. That’s still well above the risk-neutral point of 100. The “smart money” still likes stocks. The cut-off for data collection is around the 20th of the month, so it’s difficult to say what ensued during the past week or two.
Confidence among North American investors decreased with the North American ICI falling 0.8 points to 119.1, down from July’s revised reading of 119.9. Meanwhile, the Asia ICI rose by 3.5 points to 93.0 while the European ICI fell 6.8 points to 93.5. The results for September will be revealed on September 29.

Seasonality for September… The numbers are telling us that stock market returns in August (thankfully behind us now) were the worst of any month in at least two years. Unfortunately, that’s the good news! The bad news is that September historically has provided the poorest results of any month of the year.
That’s true of S&P 500 (-0.5% on average), DJI (-0.8%), Nasdaq (-0.5%) and S&P/TSX Composite Index (-1.5%).