SYNOPSIS
There was more gloom and doom last week as all the major indexes took one-week losses. That dragged all of the index trends even deeper into negative territory. As this is being written on Monday, the situation is already considerably worse.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +170% down from 239% the previous week. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index became even more negative. Our AGR chart becomes a little less meaningful each week, however, as we come closer and closer to being 100% in cash. We fortunately still have a couple stellar winners that on their own have produced the “speed of profitability” that you see in this chart.

PTA Perspective… Death Cross
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The melodrama associated with the stock markets perhaps shows itself most vividly in some of the colourful terms that are created for various market conditions. After all we already have bull and bear to describe major trends, Black Monday to describe a major market crash (October 1987), Black Friday to cheer on retailer sales in the US near Thanksgiving every year, and so on. The one that’s getting a lot of attention right now is the infamous Death Cross. Right now we’re up to our eyeballs in Death Crosses. Should we be concerned? That’s this week’s topic. Decide for yourself with the data we provide.

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index results for September were released on September 29, and the latest global trend is “more equities please!”. 10%+ corrections aside, institutional investors are buying more stocks, relative to safer assets like bonds or cash. The Global ICI rose to 116.6, up 7.2 points from August’s revised reading of 109.4. The improvement in sentiment was driven by an increase in the North American ICI from 120.6 to 133.2. Confidence among Asian investors rose by 5.4 points to 97.8, while in Europe the ICI also increased to 95.7, up 2.2 points. Do they really know something that we’re not seeing? Do they see an end to rampant selling in the near future?

SYNOPSIS
Results were mixed across the major indexes that we follow, as far as one-week results are concerned. Canadian stocks fared better than US equities for a change. All index trend values remain negative.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +239% up from 103% the previous week. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index remain decidedly negative. We’ll remind you how this is possible in markets where practically no one should be holding stocks.

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Those who refer to the bear market of 2007/2009 as a “market crash” apparently don’t know what the term means. For fun and a bit of enlightenment, this week we walk you through the very real Market Crash of October 1987. Beyond simply charting the market action, we offer a guided tour through what it was like to actually be there with a portfolio of stocks in your account. Through the time machine of video archives, we take you back to Friday October 16 and watch one brave analyst declare that a crash of the likes that most investors had never seen before was coming soon. It’s unlikely that he could have foreseen it coming on the very next trading day, Monday, October 19; but he’s gone down in history as the man who saw it coming. You’ll see the anguish on his face as he made the announcement, and a quick apology for “yelling ‘FIRE’ in a crowded theatre”. You’ll see the host laugh his comments off, and his two fellow pundits declare that the bull market wasn’t dead, and that “90% of the damage was already behind them”. Little did they know what Monday morning had in store.

Seasonality & Investor Confidence… September 2015 has certainly lived up to its reputation as being the worst month of the year to be invested in equities. We’ve walked you through the small pockets of stocks that are most likely to outperform the major indexes over the past few weeks, so now it’s time to have a look at what to expect in October. Many who still remember the crash of October 1987 tend to have very negative associations with this coming month. However, on average it’s far from being as bad as September. The S&P 500 rises 0.8% on average… making it the 7th best month of the year. It’s also #7 for the DJI, which has risen an average 0.5% historically. For Nasdaq October comes in as #8 with an average gain of 0.7%. The S&P/TSX Composite Index rises just 0.1% on average in October. That makes it a rather poor #9 among the 12 months of the year. We add-in some sector coverage in the Seasonality section as well.

Featured Video… This week we include a new video interview with one of our favourite market analysts, Jim Rogers. Jim has been pro-China for years. He’s even moved to Indonesia to be closer to studying China first hand. Let’s see what he thinks now, after recent events. Spoiler alert… he still thinks that the US is far worse off than the red giant!

SYNOPSIS
The rebound last week (in US stock prices at least) was well appreciated, but the overall situation hasn’t changed much. All major indexes are still on a downward trajectory… falling 0.3% to 1.2% per week.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +103% down from 108% the previous week. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index remain decidedly negative.

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We think that it’s fair to say that most investors follow the price action of stocks over time, and possibly look at some of the fundamental data that should help predict a company’s future prospects. But when you look at a stock chart, do you also pay attention to that trading volume bar chart at the bottom? We suspect that most traders don’t, but we’ve decided to have a look at what you might find, if you start factoring volume into your trading strategy. Some traders swear by an approach that incorporates both price and volume over time. Others argue that any additional advantage from tracking volume is marginal at best. We’re somewhat ambivalent and will explain why. We’ll also dust off some volume/price strategy measures like on-balance volume and negative volume index. The evidence is sparse, but we’ve dug out some interesting data and charted some new stuff too. We won’t promise you a definitive conclusion, but we’ll help you decide for yourself whether you should be a volume tracker.

Seasonality & Investor Confidence… September historically is the worst month of the year to be invested in stocks. That’s true of S&P 500 (-0.5% on average), DJI (-0.8%), Nasdaq (-0.5%) and S&P/TSX Composite Index (-1.5%). To date that is proving to be the case once again. This week we add some further sub-sector data. Gold, Silver, Biotech, Pharma, and Software & Services generally outperform the S&P 500 in September, but “outperform” could just mean lower losses. Look into that section and decide for yourself.

SYNOPSIS
The previous week’s rally quickly fizzled out last week. Most of the major indexes lost 3% or more over the week. Needless to say all index trend values are still negative. The big question is how low will they go as most indexes are falling by more than 1% per week with increasing consistency!

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PTA Commentary/Research… will return next week.

SYNOPSIS
After the worst week of 2015, it’s not surprising that we had a fairly significant rebound to the upside last week. Nonetheless, the trend values of all major indexes remain negative. The surge upward last week was just half of what the losses were the previous week, no matter which index you pick. The worst may not be over.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +161%. That’s about the same as the +162% the previous week. meanwhile the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite Index remain decidedly negative.

PTA Commentary… Keep Calm & Hang onto Your Shorts!

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Smart Money… The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index results for August were released last week. The Global ICI decreased to 108.7, down 4.5 points from July’s revised reading of 113.2. That’s still well above the risk-neutral point of 100. The “smart money” still likes stocks. The cut-off for data collection is around the 20th of the month, so it’s difficult to say what ensued during the past week or two.
Confidence among North American investors decreased with the North American ICI falling 0.8 points to 119.1, down from July’s revised reading of 119.9. Meanwhile, the Asia ICI rose by 3.5 points to 93.0 while the European ICI fell 6.8 points to 93.5. The results for September will be revealed on September 29.

Seasonality for September… The numbers are telling us that stock market returns in August (thankfully behind us now) were the worst of any month in at least two years. Unfortunately, that’s the good news! The bad news is that September historically has provided the poorest results of any month of the year.
That’s true of S&P 500 (-0.5% on average), DJI (-0.8%), Nasdaq (-0.5%) and S&P/TSX Composite Index (-1.5%).