SYNOPSIS
This is a blockbuster issue in many ways… new charting features at the site, a new SSICI report on where the smart money is going, a fun video comparing your financial advisor to a monkey, and perhaps an overkill discussion of the list of terms in our title and their implications. And, as usual, we continue to dwell on the profoundly negative impacts of daily media reports. We hope that some of this may make up for another devastating blow to the downside in equities last week. All the major indexes declined 2.2% (S&P 500) to 5.8% (S&P/TSX Venture Index). We’re back to where only Nasdaq has a tiny, but positive trend value.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +109%, up from 96% last time. In spite of horrifically weak broad market conditions, we’re still well ahead of the benchmark indexes, which are now overwhelmingly negative.

Smart Money… The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index results for July are just out. The Global ICI decreased to 114.6, down 12.5 points from June’s revised reading of 127.1. Confidence among North American investors decreased with the North American ICI falling 20.6 points to 122.6, down from June’s revised reading of 143.2. Meanwhile, the Asia ICI rose by 2.6 points to 89.5 while the European ICI fell 2.1 points to 100.4. In short, in spite of declines, equities are still favoured over lower risk investments except in Asia. The results for August will be revealed on August 25.

New Charting Features… Last week we introduced a do-it-yourself charting tool to the web site within the Data & Charts Workbooks section. It’s for you to use as required to chart your favourite indexes or stocks. It’s quite sophisticated, with many options to choose from. You can compare stocks with indexes or stocks with stocks, run technical analyses, check out news and social perspectives on stocks and much more. This week we add another charting tool… to get a quick glimpse of the latest data on major indexes, commodities and foreign exchange rates (Forex). Popping up the latest chart within each of those categories is easy, but you can also delve much deeper by linking to a full screen chart with dozens of ways to compare, annotate and markup any particular chart. Then, you can save, store or share it with others.
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Featured Video… Is Your Financial Advisor Any Smarter than a Monkey? Doubtful!
Let Laurie Santos convince you that your financial advisor or money manager may not be any more successful with your money than a little brown Capuchin monkey. The video is embedded in the full version of TrendWatch Weekly. Set aside about 20 minutes to enjoy this over lunch or a snack!

Commentary… Correlation, Causation, Beta, Dispersion & Diversification

How do you like our title so far? Yes, this is going to be one of those consolidation updates… where we belabour the use and abuse of statistical terminology and try to help you unravel what it all means. You won’t be surprised to hear me blame the media for all the confusion out there, because they cause it. And, yes, that is a causal relationship, not a correlation. Going beyond the correlation/causation distinction, you can’t use either one of those alone to pick stocks or manage your portfolio. You need to know something about dispersion and what all of this means when it comes to diversification.

SYNOPSIS
We had a nice surge to the upside last week for a change. Sadly, the S&P/TSX Venture Index continued to decline. The US index trend values turned positive again, while the Canadian measures are still in negative territory.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +96%, up from 90% last time. In spite of weak broad market conditions, we’re still well ahead of the benchmark indexes.

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Commentary… Portfolio Construction & Maintenance

This topic may sound boring compared to the buying and selling of stocks; but it is central to your long term objective… making as much money as you can as fast as you can! And, it still draws questions from our members here. For that reason, we offer an update on our current thinking on how to construct a workable portfolio within the relative trend analysis™ (RTA) framework, and offer some maintenance tips for more experienced traders, who may not have actually sat down and thought about portfolio management in quite a while.

SYNOPSIS
The major US indexes sold off again last week, in spite of a partial recovery on Thursday and Friday. The DJI managed a tiny gain over the week of 0.2%. At the other extreme the S&P/TSX Venture Index dropped nearly 5%! All trends in the major indexes that we chart each weekend are still negative.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +90%, up from 81% last time. In spite of negative broad market conditions, we’re still well ahead of the benchmark indexes.

Smart Money… The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index results for June are re-published to those that missed them last week. The “smart money” continues to buy equities, not sell them, in spite of world events that fill our media these days. The Global ICI increased to 127.0, up 5.6 points from May’s revised reading of 121.4. Confidence among North American investors increased with the North American ICI rising 11.7 points to 142.9, up from May’s revised reading of 131.2. Meanwhile, the Asia ICI fell by 10.3 points to 87.6 while the European ICI fell 1.2 points to 102.5. The results for July will be out on July 28.
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Research Report… 2015 – First Half Review

Nasdaq managed to gain 5.7% over the first six months of 2015, but that’s about as good as it got for major North American indexes. The S&P 500 managed a 2% gain, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index declined 2.3%. Typically, we spread out our quarterly coverage of the major indexes and sub-sectors over two consecutive issues of TrendWatch Weekly, but this time we’re packing everything into one edition. What’s more, we’ve expanded our coverage at the same time. You’ll be able to see detailed reports from both Q1 and Q2 separately, plus the overall first half YTD charts. Lots of charts and lots of highlights for you to digest. And, of course, we include the current outlook, which isn’t very favourable right now.

SYNOPSIS
The major US indexes sold off again last week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index managed a 1% gain… tied to Energy stocks. But only Nasdaq has a positive trend value right now.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +81%, down from 117% last time. In spite of negative broad market conditions, we’re well ahead of the benchmark indexes.

Smart Money… The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index results for June are re-published to those that missed them last week. The “smart money” continues to buy equities, not sell them, in spite of world events that fill our media these days. The Global ICI increased to 127.0, up 5.6 points from May’s revised reading of 121.4. Confidence among North American investors increased with the North American ICI rising 11.7 points to 142.9, up from May’s revised reading of 131.2. Meanwhile, the Asia ICI fell by 10.3 points to 87.6 while the European ICI fell 1.2 points to 102.5. The results for July will be out on July 28.
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Commentary… Options on ETFs: Beating “Average” Performance

There are really just two primary reasons to buy ETFs: (1) They outperform mutual funds 85% of the time with far lower management fees, and (2) They offer instant diversification within a single purchase (if that is important to you). The downside is that for many of us, that’s not good enough. Each ETF is typically based on an index, which is the average performance of the stocks in that index (including the best and the worst). That’s why the stock picker, who buys stocks that are outperforming the index, will always have an advantage. The exception is when leverage is applied to ETFs! We’ve talked about x2 and x3 leveraged ETFs before, but this week we discuss how using listed options on ETFs can provide you with far more control over the specific leverage you want, relative to the amount of risk that you can tolerate.

Seasonality… We started coverage of calendar effects for July last week by providing the numbers that show that it’s usually a much better month than June. This week we dig into which sectors tend to perform best. We also have some commentary on the 4th of July trade for 2015.

SYNOPSIS
The major US indexes sold off again last week, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index managed a 1% gain… tied to Energy stocks. But only Nasdaq has a positive trend value right now.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… The annualized growth rate for the ProfiTrend Portfolio is now at +117%, down from 147% last time. In spite of soft broad market conditions, we’re well ahead of the benchmark indexes.

Smart Money… The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index results for June have just been published. The “smart money” continues to buy equities, not sell them, in spite of world events that fill our media these days. The Global ICI increased to 127.0, up 5.6 points from May’s revised reading of 121.4. Confidence among North American investors increased with the North American ICI rising 11.7 points to 142.9, up from May’s revised reading of 131.2. Meanwhile, the Asia ICI fell by 10.3 points to 87.6 while the European ICI fell 1.2 points to 102.5. The results for July will be out on July 28.
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Commentary… A Greece-y Slope!

We don’t normally displace a topic we’ve been working on due to a “breaking news” type of event, but we decided to switch gears and talk about Monday’s large one-day drop. We were waiting for Tuesday’s State Street Investor Confidence data anyway, so our publication schedule wasn’t disrupted much.
Greece, Greece, Greece, Greece, Greece, Greece, Greece, Greece is all we’ve been hearing about for the past couple weeks; so it should come as no surprise that news breaking over the weekend about bank closures there scared investors worldwide into selling stocks on Monday. All the major North American indexes lost 2% or more in a single day. But did this really have anything to do with Greece at all? We doubt it, but you can decide for yourself whether or not to believe our arguments in this week’s TrendWatch Weekly. We’ve even included a featured video interview with Marc Faber, the editor of Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. It originally appeared yesterday (Monday, June 29), so it’s timely. Watch it via this link, or see it embedded in the full newsletter.