Do You Really Want to Invest Like Warren Buffet?

SYNOPSIS
The major market indexes improved again last week. Nasdaq continues to lead our 6-pack of indexes on a trend basis, followed by the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500. But on a one-week basis both the DJI and the S&P/TSX Small Cap indexes outpaced the others last week with 2%+ gains.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate rose to 86% from 54% the previous week. That compares with 17% for the S&P 500 and 20% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

Seasonality… We begin to look into what September might have in store as far as calendar effects go.

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Topic of the Week… Do You Really Want to Invest Like Warren Buffet?
Some have claimed that Warren Buffet has been and continues to be the greatest stock picker of all time. Do we believe that? Of course not! With all due respect for the Oracle of Omaha, we offer some arguments that you can’t invest like Warren Buffet in a literal sense. And, starting right now, you can’t possibly match his historical performance either. Times have changed and a crystal ball looking back three decades is not going to help you when you need to look forward. We have more on that, along with a valuable lesson on the problems with time anchored comparison charts. Another 2-in-1 Topic of the Week!

Featured Video… In keeping with our topic of the week, we feature Warren Buffet. CNBC managed to grab a solid three hours of his time a couple months ago, and he spoke with many CNBC familiar faces about a wide variety of topics.

Yellow Flag: More on the Tenuous State of Current Market Conditions

SYNOPSIS
The major market indexes have improved again last week, except for our two Canadian small cap measures… S&P/TSX Small Cap Index and S&P/TSX Venture Index. Nasdaq gained 2.2% last week. That increased it’s trend value enough to bring it to the top of our trend chart. S&P/TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 are in #2 and #3 positions.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate rose to 54% from 19% the previous week. That compares with 3.7% for the S&P 500 and 10.5% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index.

Seasonality… Although we’ve discussed the more common calendar effects for August over the past few weeks, we have now included Thackray’s monthly videos for August.

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Topic of the Week… Topic of the Week… Yellow Flag: More on the Tenuous State of Current Market Conditions

Last week we suggested that we might be in for “rough trading ahead!”. The gist of the argument was that for some large databases of stocks that we maintain, the majority of constituents have shown negative trends. We normally don’t want to spend a lot of time finding a few exceptional situations where individual stocks “buck the trend”, because normally they don’t fight the predominant trend for long.

This week, we find that there has been some improvement in that situation, but other measures of the broader market still suggest that caution is indicated. More on that below.

Yellow Flag: Getting Prepared for Rough Trading Ahead!

SYNOPSIS
The major market indexes struggled back a bit from the devastation endured a week earlier. Among changes in the major indexes we follow, one-week changes were minor… either up or down. Both the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index have positive trend values, unlike the others.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is at 19%, the same level as the previous week. That’s low based on historical performance, but still above the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (-9%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (+8%).

Seasonality… We repeat the generally negative outlook for equities in August, and include a multi-month seasonal play on gold bullion and gold stocks. Thackray apparently has skipped his monthly videos for August. They normally elaborate on what we’ve extracted from his book.

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Topic of the Week… Yellow Flag: Getting Prepared for Rough Trading Ahead!

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Although media talk of a severe correction has toned down quite a bit last week and into the beginning of this one, we’re seeing evidence that there is not going to be a prompt snap back into rampant bull market trading. Obviously, we hope that we’re wrong. Today’s discussion goes into more detail of the “yellow flag” status of the equities markets and how to cope with what lies ahead.

Mid-2014 ETF Review – Part 2

SYNOPSIS
The major market indexes dropped 2-3% last week… the largest one-week decline in 2 years. As usual there were no sensible explanations being presented by the media… just the usual “blah blah blah” about a correction being expected by now. Doesn’t a “correction” imply that something is wrong?

Five of the six major indexes we track have negative trend values now. If that were to continue, we should certainly think twice about being on the long side of stocks; but it’s too early to tell.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now down to 19%. That’s low based on historical performance, but still above the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (-15%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (5%).

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State Street Investor Confidence Index… We have the latest monthly results from this key measure of “smart money” confidence for July. The current global index is at 114.7… down a few points from the previous month. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky assets (i.e. stocks) and low risk assets (i.e. bonds). The regional breakdown distinctly favours European investments right now.

Topic of the Week… Mid-2014 ETF Review – Part 2

This week we wrap up our mid-year coverage of exchange traded products (ETPs), of which ETFs are the biggest subset, with some performance data. We post a Top 30 year-to-date list and a Top 30 looking forward with trend rankings. If you guessed that coffee would be really big this year, you were right!