Mid-2014 ETF Review

SYNOPSIS
The S&P TSX Composite Index moved ahead to yet another new record, gaining 188.47 points, or 1.23%, to 15,455.04. The TSX-Venture Composite Index halted a two-week slide, advancing 5.20 points, or 0.51%, to 1,017.44.

In the US, the DJIA continued to struggle holding above 17,000, ending the week down by 139.61 points, or 0.82%, at 16,960.57. The S&P 500 failed to break through at stay above 2000, to close at 1,978.34. The NASDAQ Composite also added to its total, adding 17.42 points, or 0.39%, to 4,449.56.

S&P/TSX Composite Index and Nasdaq top our index trend chart.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now at 39%. That’s low based on historical performance, but still above the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (12%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (20%).

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State Street Investor Confidence Index… We publish the latest monthly results from this key measure of “smart money” confidence for July. The current global index is at 114.7… down a few points from the previous month. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky assets (i.e. stocks) and low risk assets (i.e. bonds). The regional breakdown distinctly favours European investments right now.

Topic of the Week… Mid-2014 ETF Review
Although we like to emphasize stock trading over investment vehicles like ETFs, we certainly don’t want to undermine their importance to many investors. These products and their asset values are still growing exponentially. And, while we may not talk about ETFs as often as we might, we do maintain a Premium Service database of roughly 1500 North American exchange traded products, which our subscribers appreciate receiving weekly for their investment purposes.

For that reason, this week we explore the phenomenal growth of this investment class, both domestically and globally. We add to that some descriptions of ETF online resources and tools to maximize your return when adding ETFs to your portfolio.

Under the Aspect of Eternity: Exponential Moving Averages

SYNOPSIS
After the devastation the previous week, the results for last week were mixed, with Nasdaq S&P/TSX, S&P 500 and DJI advancing, while S&P/TSX Small Cap and S&P/TSX Venture Indexes fell. Some would call this a “rush to quality” during uncertain times. As far as we’re concerned, it just is what it is. Meanwhile everyone has forgotten that Portugal even exists; and the major markets advanced, in spite of the fact that the US continues to endorse the Israeli massacre of Palestinians and escalates a cold-war with Russia. (Just a quick reminder of our discussion last week.)

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now at 34%. That’s quite low by our standards, but still above the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (16%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (12%).

Seasonality… We offer a sneak preview of what to expect in August in terms of calendar effects. Hint: The picture isn’t pretty.
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State Street Investor Confidence Index… We continue to post the latest monthly results from this key measure of “smart money” confidence for June. Institutional investors continue to pour billions into equities as they pull money out of “risk-less” bonds. The current global index is at 119.5. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky (stocks) and diskless (bonds) asset holdings.

Topic of the Week… Under the Aspect of Eternity: Exponential Moving Averages
This week’s topic delves a little deeper into the underlying math of the relative trend analysis™ (RTA) framework. We use exponential moving averages for most of our calculations, as opposed to simple or arbitrarily-weighted moving averages. We remind you why that’s the case, then go on to explain that there is also more than one way to calculate exponential moving averages. That’s where it gets interesting. More below.

What Would It Take to Rig the Markets?

SYNOPSIS
Results were dismal on a one-week basis, with the major indexes that we track taking hits of -0.5% to 2.0%. Fortunately, all trend values still remain positive.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now at 72%. That’s still well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (14%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (11%).

Seasonality… Brooke Thackray, our go-to “Seasonality Guy” has finally posted his video prognostications for July. We have embedded both both his Market View and Sector View for this month.
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State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results from this key measure of “smart money” confidence have just been released for the month of June. Institutional investors continue to pour billions into equities as they pull money out of “risk-less” bonds. The current global index is at 119.5. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky (stocks) and diskless (bonds) asset holdings.

Topic of the Week… What Would It Take to Rig the Markets?
This week’s topic might be considered controversial, but don’t worry… we won’t be sketching out a detailed conspiracy theory about market manipulation. All the same, we will speculate about substantial short-term market declines like we saw last week, and how they could conceivably have been deliberately triggered. We then discuss an example of a case of stock manipulation (also last week) that couldn’t possibly be explained as anything other than stock manipulation. We leave it to you to decide whether this could happen on a grander scale, and what you can do about it.

2014 – First Half/Q2 Review

SYNOPSIS
On a one-week basis, we had excellent moves to the upside. Both Canada and the US had a 4-day trading week. The official holiday was July 1 in Canada (Canada Day) and July 4 in the US (Independence Day). Nasdaq continues to be the trend leader among the 6 major indexes that we report on weekly. Nasdaq stocks are climbing at about 1% per week right now.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now at 127%. That’s still well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (30%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (27%).

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results from this key measure of “smart money” confidence have just been released for the month of June. Institutional investors continue to pour billions into equities as they pull money out of “diskless” bonds. The current global index is at 119.5. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky (stocks) and diskless (bonds) asset holdings.
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Seasonality… We repeat our coverage of the expected calendar effects for July. We would normally have included the monthly videos from Brooke Thackray, our standby source on calendar effects, but he apparently took last Friday off. He normally posts his latest monthly clips on the first Friday of the month. We also check in on the Independence Day holiday trade, and whether you could have made some bonus profits this year.

Topic of the Week… 2014 – First Half/Q2 Review
This week’s topic is a review of the first half of 2014. We look at how the major indexes have fared, and dig in to the sectors with the best advances. Then we turn to current trends for both indexes and sectors. After all it’s too late to make profits from the past.

Complacency & the Critical Eye

SYNOPSIS
On a one-week basis, all of the major indexes we track were to the downside, except for Nasdaq, which managed a 0.7% gain. Nasdaq also leads our index list on a trend basis now, followed by the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index, then the S&P 500. In other words there’s no clear leader when comparing US vs Canadian markets.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now at 144%, after a set-back in part due to a failed option trade (which was outside the scope of our normal trading strategy.) Regardless, 144% is still well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (25%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (23%).

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results from this key measure of “smart money” confidence have just been released for the month of June. Institutional investors continue to pour billions into equities as they pull money out of “riskless” bonds. The current global index is at 119.5. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky (stocks) and riskless (bonds) asset holdings.

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Topic of the Week… Complacency & the Critical Eye
This week’s topic underlines the importance of applying some critical thinking when reading anything that you hope might improve your skills as a do-it-yourself investor. Absorbing the material like a sponge just isn’t enough. You need to be constantly assessing the quality of what you read as you read it. We illustrate this by dissecting a recent “investor tips” article from a financial newspaper. It was pretty much randomly chosen, and the critique applied there is generalizable to other articles like it. Along the way, we also have a look at the latest financial media buzzword, “complacency”. It may quickly become another media verbal platform to mislead investors, just as “volatility” has been for the past seven years.

Featured Video… Speaking of complacency, my kid brother, Bob (Robert E. Whaley, PhD), who created the VIX volatility index, has stooped to a Fox News TV interview this past week. In spite to that, he actually tells a great story about the history of the index and what the subdued VIX levels really mean right now.