SYNOPSIS
On a one-week basis, S&P/TSX Venture Index stocks finally joined the party with a 2.9% gain. The S&P/TSX Small Cap Index rose 1.6%, putting it at the top of the trend rankings for the indexes that we track. All other indexes were positive on a one week basis, and by their trend values.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is now up to 237%, well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (32%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (25%).

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest results from this key measure of “smart money” confidence have just been released this morning for the month of June. Institutional investors continue to pour billions into equities as they pull money out of “riskless” bonds. The current global index is at 119.5. 100 is considered the neutral point in the balance between risky (stocks) and riskless (bonds) asset holdings.
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Seasonality… We summarize the calendar effects for July, including the holiday trade wrapped around the American 4th of July holiday.

Topic of the Week… The Crude Oil Surge in Perspective

This week we examine the “petro-dollar” phenomenon, and have a closer look at the returns from investing in oil using individual stocks or ETFs based on oil stocks or the raw commodity. Energy stocks have been on a tear recently, and there doesn’t appear to be anything that might prevent this form continuing.

SYNOPSIS
On a one-week basis Canadian stocks rose last week while the US major indexes fell. The S&P/TSX SmallCap index jumped 2.7%, while the S&P/TSX Composite and S&P/TSX Venture indexes were up about 1%.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate is holding steady at 154%, well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (18%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (23%).

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are included for the month of May 2014. The “smart money” continues to ignore geopolitical issues… treating them as the media-created fantasies that they are. Institutional investors recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets. This is actually most pronounced right now with European investments in equities rather than North American or Asian.
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Topic of the Week… Convertible Debentures: A Debt/Equity Hybrid

We rarely talk about bonds here, because we’re more interested in the capital gains accrued from rising equity prices, rather than income from the debt market. So, even though there are ways to leverage changes in bond prices, that’s currently outside of our scope.

There is one type of bond, however, that is a hybrid security… part debt instrument, part equity. That’s the convertible debenture, which is today’s topic. They are rarely ever mentioned in the media, and I don’t believe that I’ve written anything about them either in all of the years that this newsletter was been produced. So, I’m thinking that it’s probably time to have a look.

SYNOPSIS
All of the major indexes that we track were to the upside last week, with the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index showing a surprisingly large gain of 2.7% on a one-week basis. Trend-wise, the major US indexes are still showing a distinct advantage over Canadian equities in general.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate has increased to 153%, well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (34%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (23%). We sold two positions last week, and added five new ones.

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are included for the month of May 2014. The “smart money” continues to ignore geopolitical issues… treating them as the media-created fantasies that they are. Institutional investors recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets. This is actually most pronounced right now with European investments in equities rather than North American or Asian.

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In October 2012 I published a TrendWatch Weekly update called “The Weekend Warrior Approach to Trading”. The goal was to outline how you can have a highly effective do-it-yourself investment strategy based on spending an hour or two each weekend to track your portfolio and decide what you will buy or sell next. This week I revisit that topic, not with a simple reprint of the previous contents, but with a whole new presentation that includes highlights from the previous version, plus some new tactics and suggestions.

Seasonality… We review some of the calendar effects for June, and then let Brooke Thackray present his version through his monthly videos.

Featured Video… We have an optimist interviewed on this weeks featured video… Wharton Business School professor Jeremy Siegel. He explains why stocks are actually under-valued right now, contrary to the opinions of most other talking heads.

SYNOPSIS
The S&P 500 was hitting new highs again last week, while Canadian stocks were lower on a one-week basis. Trend-wise, the major US indexes are now showing a very distinct advantage.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our PTP annualized growth rate has increased to 82%, well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (25%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (6%). We added one call option position to the PTP last week, but otherwise stayed on the sidelines.

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are included for the month of May 2014. The “smart money” continues to ignore geopolitical issues… treating them as the media-created fantasies that they are. Institutional investors recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets. This is actually most pronounced right now with European investments in equities rather than North American or Asian.
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Topic of the Week… Not All Averages are Created Equal!

When someone says that the average of a set of numbers is X, you should probably ask “What kind of average are you talking about?” We all grow up learning about an average that statisticians call the mean. That’s where you add up your list of numbers, then divide the total by the number of numbers you just added up. For most people that’s the only kind of average they know. In this week’s discussion, we want to introduce you to or remind you of other kinds of averages based on the same numbers. Some work better than others in specific situations. When money is lost or gained based on the calculations of averages, this is important.

Featured Video… Our featured video is actually three clips featuring behavioural economist, Dan Ariely. One sets up what behavioural economics (or behavioural finance) is all about, and the second one gets into “cheating on Wall St”, and why that happens. Finally, Ariely turns his attention to “cheating on spouses”. This may seem off topic, but Ariely explains how many similar principles apply. We also learn how Toronto-based AshleyMadison.com makes a small fortune with it’s web-based services for spousal infidelity.