Internal Contradictions: When to Be Nervous about New Highs

SYNPOSIS
The markets were upbeat last week heading out of the Victoria Day weekend in Canada and heading into the Memorial Weekend in the US. The Nasdaq Composite performed particularly well with a 2.3% gain, and the S&P 500 closed the week at an all-time high above 1900.

ProfiTrend Portfolio… Our annualized growth rate has increased to 65%, which is still well ahead of the comparable stats for the S&P 500 (14%) and the S&P/TSX Composite Index (17%). Our week-over-week performances comes without any trading. New additions from the previous week are starting to have an influence on PTP performance.

Investor Confidence… The latest State Street Investor Confidence data are just out for the current month of May 2014. The “smart money” continues to ignore geopolitical issues… treating them as mostly the media-created fantasies that they are. They recognize that riskier equities are still a better place to be than bonds and other “risk-free” assets. This is actually most pronounced with European investments in equities than with North American or Asian investments in stocks.
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Topic of the Week… Internal Contradictions: When to Be Nervous about New Highs
It can actually be quite boring to report on the markets when the key indexes are hitting new highs, the “smart money” is looking for more gains ahead, and volatility is near the lowest point in the entire history of the VIX. Generally our portfolios are reflecting this bag of riches as well, and we wish that we had more cash to invest. Although this is a happy form of boredom, it can make us complacent and less attuned to other issues that aren’t being reported by the media. I’m going to present you with some thoughts on this as our topic this week. You also need to keep an eye on internal contradictions. I’ll walk you through some of those as applied to our investment climate right now.

Video of the Week… We’ve brought Marc Faber back in another video to discuss his views on both the American and Chinese market. “Dr Doom” doesn’t hold back on his negative sentiment. The problem is that he’s been totally negative through this 5-6 year bull market. Do you believe him this time?