Sell in May and Go Away? Not a Very Smart Idea!

SYNOPSIS
The markets were back to the upside again last week with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials leading the way among the major indexes that we track.

Trading activity… No trades this past week in the ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP). The annualized growth rate of the PTP is 86%… down slightly from last week. That compares with an AGR of 24% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and 13% for the S&P 500.

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Every year we’re reminded of some very old research showing that over a very long time (50-100 years or more), you’d would have made far more money being invested for just six months of the year (November through April) as opposed to the other six months (May through October). Hence the expression “Sell in May and Go Away!”. While the historical data and charts do provide a fairly convincing case, we’ve taken a closer look at the underlying assumptions and prepared a chart of our own. We conclude that a simple “six months in, six months out” strategy is far from optimal.

State Street Investor Confidence… The latest data for the month of March are included. Institutional investors are unfazed by any geopolitical tensions, and staying heavily invested in equities.