SYNOPSIS
The markets were mixed last week with Canadian stocks moving up, while US equities headed south. By trend values on the indexes, Canadian stocks are favoured.

Trading activity… Four positions were sold this past week in the ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP). The annualized growth rate of the PTP is 147%… down slightly from last week. That compares with an AGR of 21% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and 10% for the S&P 500.

Topic of the Week… Spring 2014 Update on Exchange Traded Products (ETPs)

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That’s this week’s topic. We’ll do a quick review of the basic pros and cons and have a look at some of the latest ETPs that have just come to market.

State Street Investor Confidence… The Smart Money Is Still Ignoring Geopolitical Events The latest data for the month of April are included… fresh off of the latest press release on Tuesday. There was a tiny pull back during April, but the SSICI is still favouring riskier assets like stocks, rather than the security of income-based vehicles like bonds. As you may recall the SSICI is based on the actual money flow of institutional investors, not opinion surveys. State Street has $2.3 trillion under management, so this should be a rock solid indicator of where the “smart money” is located.

Seasonality… With May just a few days away and “Sell in May and Go Away” being on some people’s minds (see last week’s coverage of that topic), those who like calendar effects should being lookng for niche opportunities. We have some of those below.

SYNOPSIS
The markets were back to the upside again last week with the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials leading the way among the major indexes that we track.

Trading activity… No trades this past week in the ProfiTrend Portfolio (PTP). The annualized growth rate of the PTP is 86%… down slightly from last week. That compares with an AGR of 24% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index and 13% for the S&P 500.

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Every year we’re reminded of some very old research showing that over a very long time (50-100 years or more), you’d would have made far more money being invested for just six months of the year (November through April) as opposed to the other six months (May through October). Hence the expression “Sell in May and Go Away!”. While the historical data and charts do provide a fairly convincing case, we’ve taken a closer look at the underlying assumptions and prepared a chart of our own. We conclude that a simple “six months in, six months out” strategy is far from optimal.

State Street Investor Confidence… The latest data for the month of March are included. Institutional investors are unfazed by any geopolitical tensions, and staying heavily invested in equities.

SYNOPSIS
We were decidedly back on the downside last week, especially with US stocks. The Nasdaq dropped a little over 3%, while the Dow and S&P 500 weren’t far behind. Of the six major indexes we chart weekly in terms of one-week performance and current trends, only the S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX Small Cap Index have positive trends right now.

Trading Activity… There was a bit more selling in the ProfiTrend Portfolio this past week. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now at 94%, down from 108% previously. That compares with AGRs of -15% for the S&P 500 and +11% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

Topic of the Week… High Frequency Trading… Is the Market Rigged? Should You Care?
The recent publication of Michael Lewis’ new book, Flash Boys, has stimulated not only a flurry of interviews with the author and one of the central characters in the story, Brad Katsuyama, but also a “shit storm” of debate on Wall Street about high-frequency trading (HFT) and its impact on the markets.

The case that the media like to dramatize is that the average retail trader like you and me can’t match the performance of the computer-based trading that’s happening at the millisecond level. That’s because the HFT computers are plugged directly into the stock exchange computers. Does that mean we should give up and put our money under our mattresses, where at least we won’t be gouged by the banks? What do you think?
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The Flash Boys related videos that we posted last week stimulated a few questions from readers, including a request or two for our specific opinion on market rigging. This week, we’ll try to put these matters in context, away from the media hysteria.

Seasonality… We repeat Brooke Thackray’s videos for April once again, for those who skipped over them in the last two editions. Starting next week, we’ll starting setting the stage for May 2014, and what we might anticipate on the calendar then.

Video of the Week… There’s some nepotism involved in the selection of this week’s video. My brother Bob Whaley dropped by CNBC’s Mad Money show hosted by Jim Cramer last Thursday… coincidentally on the day that the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 267 points. He talks about VIX… his popular volatility index, the futility of buying the current batch of ETPs based on VIX, and what he’s working on to change that. Remarkably, Cramer was polite!

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for March are still posted. The institutional investors continue to favour risk (stocks) over safety (bonds), while being unfazed by the US attempt to create another Cold War. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!

SYNOPSIS
Last week’s results were quite positive in spite of Friday’s sell off in momentum stocks. Since up-trending = high momentum, that means those of us still holding. There will always be set-backs like this from time to time. We’ve just got to roll with the punches, and keep a rigorous approach to handling losses in place.

Trading Activity… There was more selling in the ProfiTrend Portfolio this past week. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is at 108%… still quite respectable. That compares with AGRs of 20% for the S&P 500 and 23% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

We’ve been selling stocks gradually over the past two weeks in the ProfiTrend Portfolio with our standard sell signals, so it’s not like Thursday and Friday suddenly came out of nowhere. The beauty of relative trend analysis™ (RTA) is that our signals take us out of the markets (when necessary) in a systematic fashion. There are rarely any sudden surprises.

Topic of the Week… 1st Quarter Review – 2014

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Seasonality… We have Brooke Thackray’s videos for April this week. We don’t recommend investing based solely on calendar effects, but an alignment of our own buying preferences and the probability boost from seasonality can’t hurt.

Video of the Week… Michael Lewis’ latest book, Flash Boys, has created quite a stir in the Wall Street community. It explores the world of high-frequency trading to separate legitimate advantages of the technology from applications that would be illegal if human traders were doing exactly the same thing. We actually bring you two videos… a more sympathetic discuss between Michael Lewis and The Daily Show’s Jon Stewart, and a more adversarial interview with Bloomberg TV.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for March are still posted. The institutional investors continue to favour risk (stocks) over safety (bonds), while being unfazed by the US attempt to create another Cold War. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!