SYNOPSIS

Last week’s results were a mess, with all of the major indexes taking losses, except for the DJI, which managed a very small gain.

Trading Activity… There was nothing but selling in the ProfiTrend Portfolio. The annualized growth rate (AGR) for the PTP slipped to 69%, from far loftier heights a few weeks ago. That compares with AGRs of 11-12% for both the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX Composite Index constituents.

Topic of the Week… Q&A – Part 2: Taking on Our Readers’ More Challenging Questions

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We answer another round of subscriber questions this week, before getting back to more substantive topics in the weeks to come. You can expect a 1Q2014 review next week.

Seasonality… We bring you a sneak preview for April as far as calendar effects are concerned. We’ll augment that with Brooke Thackray’s monthly seasonality videos, which will probably be available in a week or so. HINT: Keep an eye on Energy stocks during April.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The recent data on what the “smart money” institutional investors have been doing in March is included. The results are updated monthly. The SSICI fell just 2.5 points in March to 120.2. Anything above 100 is clearly pro-equities vs. pro-bonds and other more conservative investments.

Video of the Week… Mark Yusko, of Morgan Creek Capital Management, has some interesting things to say about the outlook for equities, especially the positive outlook for Japan, and the concept of investor’s “edge”.

SYNOPSIS
Last week’s results favoured US stocks, although the trend rankings are still showing Canadian equities up front.

Trading Activity… There was no trading in the ProfiTrend Portfolio. The annualized growth rate for the PTP slipped to 102%, from its rather lofty level of 265% two weeks ago. That compares with AGRs of 20% for both the S&P 500 and the S&P/TSX Composite Index constituents.

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After a long dry spell of no one-on-one interactions with readers via email, some questions and comments have been rolling in. Some required personalized responses, but we’ve picked some that may be of more general interest, and answered them in this week’s edition. We welcome feedback in the form of questions, comments, suggestions and even critiques if they’re presented in a constructive manner.

Seasonality… We bring you a sneak preview for April as far as calendar effects are concerned. We’ll augment that with Brooke Thackray’s monthly seasonality videos, which will probably be available in a week or two.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… Brand new data on what the “smart money” institutional investors have been doing in March. The SSICI fell just 2.5 points in March to 120.2. This confirms what most of the world already knows… the “Crisis” in “Crimean Crisis” is a fabrication created by the US government and fuelled by their puppet media. It does not worry institutional investors at all, and they have billions of dollars at risk. More below.

SYNOPSIS
Last week’s results turned sour compared to the week before. The biggest one-week losses were among US companies, as summarized by the major indexes.

Trading Activity… As the week progressed we decided to halt our buying spree in the ProfiTrend Portfolio. The annualized growth rate for the PTP slipped to 157%, from its rather overdone level of 265% the previous week. That compares with AGRs of 13% for the S&P 500 and 18% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

Topic of the Week… What’s a Big Move in the Markets and What’s Not?
Every day the business media hysteria pump keeps churning out headlines that purportedly are related to the change in the Dow Industrials or S&P 500. With a 100 point or more drop in the DJI, it might be “Investors Spooked by Crimean Crisis!”. The very next day, with a 50 point gain in the same index, the headline might be “Investors Unfazed by Ukraine Incident!”. So which is correct? “Spooked” or “Unfazed”? …when essentially nothing happened in Ukraine from one day to the next. And, furthermore, is a 100 point move in the Dow a big move or not? Subjectively, a 3-digit number like 100 may seem much larger than a 2-digit number like 99, but is it really enough to contact your broker and say “Sell everything!”. Of course not!

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Seasonality… We have Brooke Thackray’s videos for March this week. Better late than never. We don’t recommend investing based solely on calendar effects, but an alignment of our own buying preferences and the probability boost from seasonality can’t hurt.

Video of the Week… We bring you a half-hour interview with billionaire George Soros. Soros has built his fortune watching political and economic events as they develop globally. Among his accomplishments he notoriously “…broke the Bank of England” in the 90s. The UK as a country earned a value lesson from that experience… you can’t expect to win when one man is betting $10 billion against you! Nowadays, Soros is as active as ever at 83 years of age. His rare interviews on the global economic scene are definitely worth watching.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for February are included. After the huge jump in “smart money” investing in stocks in January, there was more follow-through around the globe in February. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!

SYNOPSIS
Join me in wishing the Bull Market a Happy Birthday!

Five years ago (March 9) the stock market, reeling from the financial crisis, hit bottom. The Dow closed at just under 6,500 and the S&P 500 ended at 676.5. Since March 9, 2009, the Dow and the S&P 500 have more than doubled.

Your profits and our profits over the past five years are a constant reminder that we can not only match but exceed the average gains with relative trend analysis™ (RTA).

Last week’s results were pretty positive overall, with the S&P 500 hitting another new high. Canadian small caps, which had a set-back the previous week, bounced back with the best gains from among the indexes we report.

Trading Activity… We bought three new stocks the ProfiTrend Portfolio last week. The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now 265%, up from 137% last week. That compares with AGRs of 28% for the S&P 500 and 29% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

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This week’s edition is oriented to newer subscribers, but it can’t hurt to refresh the memories of those of you who have followed us for years, if not decades.

The hurdle we have with newer readers is that we are not like any other conventional investment newsletter, so it takes a while to get used to our style. We don’t offer specific stock recommendations. We don’t set price targets or otherwise make predictions for major market indexes. We ignore the business media as much as we can (with a few exceptions); and we take a systematic approach to eliminating the biggest mistakes that investors make.

Most of all, we encourage and try to facilitate a truly self-directed approach to making large profits in the markets. Few investors ever do well by copying someone else, or blindly buying recommended stocks. Those that get ahead develop and follow a system that they’re comfortable with. We help you get there, even if we’ll never know exactly what you’re doing. That’s your business, not ours.

One of the editions of TrendWatch Weekly that has resonated with a lot of readers is one that was published in October, 2010. It explains our general distain for the business media and Biz TV in particular. And, at the same time, it explains our overall approach to investing in colloquial terms that even a business journalist should understand. Unfortunately, they don’t. I think that you’ll enjoy this fun “pseudo-interview”. It’ll also help you put everything we do in perspective.

Seasonality… We were expecting Brooke Thackray’s monthly seasonality videos this past week, but they’ve apparently been delayed. All the same, we provide some calendar-related expectations that you can normally find in March.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for February are included. After the huge jump in “smart money” investing in stocks in January, there was more follow-through around the globe in February. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!

SYNOPSIS
All the major indexes we report had at least modest gains last week. US equities performed a little better than Canadian counterparts, but the trends still favour Canadian stocks.

Trading Activity… We sold one stock in the ProfiTrend Portfolio last week and bought five new ones (three Canadian, two American). The annualized growth rate for the PTP is now 137%, up from 99% last week. That compares with AGRs of 28% for the S&P 500 and 29% for the S&P/TSX Composite Index companies.

Topic of the Week… Towards Automating Investment Research & Decision Making
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Video of the Week… Jim Cramer on active trading vs. index investing.

State Street Investor Confidence Index… The latest data for February are included. After the huge jump in “smart money” investing in stocks in January, there was more follow-through around the globe in February. Apparently, those managing multi-billion dollar accounts ignore the media as much as we do!